000 AXNT20 KNHC 041145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N11W 6N20W 5N30W 3N40W 2N50W 3N53W IN SOUTHERN SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH HAS BEEN IN A BAND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LAST 5 TO 6 HOURS. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N78W...CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR 21N81W AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N88W TO 18N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT BREAKS UP AT 19N94W AND IT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N97W CURVING TO 20N101W 23N101W 24N101W 27N104W. THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO WIND FORECAST INCLUDES A STORM WARNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ROUGHLY DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N61W BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST AS 75W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE 25N59W 9N61W TROUGH ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FASTER WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARE GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ELSEWHERE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N61W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W AND 15N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N59W 16N61W 9N61W. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MARKS THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N51W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N44W TO 27N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 24N55W 25N36W 16N43W 10N55W 24N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N21W TO 13N47W. $$ MT