000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N10W 6N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N50W 3N53W IN SOUTHERN SURINAME. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN A BAND WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N78W...CROSSING FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N86W TO 19N94W. THE FRONT BREAKS UP AT 19N94W AND IT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N97W CURVING TO 20N101W 23N101W 25N100W 27N103W. THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO WIND FORECAST INCLUDES A STORM WARNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ROUGHLY 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 75W...FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO CENTRAL AMERICA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N61W BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST AS 75W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...EVERYWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE 24N56W 20N59W 15N60W 9N59W TROUGH ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE TRADE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FASTER WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARE GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ELSEWHERE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N61W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N67W AND 15N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N56W 20N59W 15N60W 9N59W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REPLACES THE TROUGH FROM 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NEAR 28N50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 20N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N44W TO 27N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N19W TO 15N37W. $$ MT