000 AXNT20 KNHC 022356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT DEC 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N30W 4N52W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF WRN CUBA. UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS HIGH. THIS UPPER FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE ONCE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT...HENCE THE FRONT IS NOW STATIONARY. AS OF 2100 UTC THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BAND OF ASSOCIATED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS EXTENDING NE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS STILL NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE GULF. AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IS OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AND INTO NE MEXICO AND SE TEXAS...WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE MEXICAN TERRAIN AND AN INVERSION BETWEEN ABOUT 900 AND 700 MB. A 1032 MB SFC HIGH IS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...FROM ITS CENTER NEAR WRN KENTUCKY. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. HOWEVER...STRONG REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF SUN INTO MON...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN AS DESCRIBED IN MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2. THIS WILL ALSO KICK THE FRONT THROUGH THE SE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 80W. LARGE SURF FROM THIS TRADE SWELL EVENT CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. WINDS/SEAS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREATER/LESSER ANTILLES AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS JUST S OF WRN CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND BEYOND BERMUDA. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 60W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER...JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SFC COLD FRONT...NOW QUASI STATIONARY...IS IN THIS AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO THE COAST OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED -SHRA NOTED WITHIN 200NM OF THE FRONT. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 20N57W...OR ABOUT 300NM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SFC TROUGH THAT IS LIKELY PARTIALLY A REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ALONG 8N56W 26N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 45W-53W...AND FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 38W-48W. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND THE STRONG 1034 MB CENTRAL ATLC SFC HIGH NEAR 35N35W IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY AND HIGH SEAS. THIS WILL SEND A MODERATE ELY SWELL THROUGH THE SW NORTH ATLC...PEAKING ALONG FLORIDA BEACHES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E ATLC BETWEEN 17W-50W. $$ WILLIS