000 AXNT20 KNHC 021745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 54W/55W HAS BEEN REANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW AS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 25N43W TO 9N54W WITH A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...BUOYS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ALSO REVEALED THE WIND SHIFT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS. AN AREA OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 3N30W 6N45W 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FOLLOW THE FRONT COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE POOLED AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE EXTENDS A RIDGE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF PRODUCING NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER WESTERN CUBA/NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W. REINFORCING HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES SUN PUSHING THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MON MORNING. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INVADE THE GULF...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN PART AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS A VERY STRONG 1052 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING CREATING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS HAVE BEEN CARRIED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREATER/LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE NELY WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA... WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER WESTERN CUBA/NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N81W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG ELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND BERMUDA. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 60W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER...JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N57W ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 58W-58W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...AND EXTENDS NWD ALONG 37/38W FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER NE BRAZIL. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 36N36W GIVING THE ATLC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA STRONG NELY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. DRY AIR IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH. $$ GR