000 AXNT20 KNHC 021201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N50W 15N54W 10N56W 7N57W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ... 7N11W 5N30W 4N46W 4N54W IN FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W... AND FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W...ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N31W 5N40W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N40W 6N45W 10N50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THANKS TO AN 18N84W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 240 TO 480 NM EAST OF 30N84W 24N93W 19N95W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH 28N83W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N56W BRINGS CYCLONIC FLOW AS FAR WEST AS 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR PREVAILS EAST OF 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N82W 12N84W. SOME OF THIS IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ...AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 23N56W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 26N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND BERMUDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE NORTH OF 20N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND TROUGH...ALONG 39W NORTH OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W TO 28N72W BEYOND 33N58W. $$ MT