000 AXNT20 KNHC 012156 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT WITH OTHER SOURCES OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY NEARBY...SUCH AS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NE...THE ITCZ...AND SOME WEAK CONFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE WAVE. REGARDLESS...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL WITH STIFF UPPER WLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 8N50W 6N59W. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EXTENSIVE SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE US. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE GULF HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT..AND AS OF 1500 UTC...EXTENDS FROM NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W...WHICH IS ALSO ABOUT 100 NM W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF. EXTENSIVE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS EXIST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N AS STRONG 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM SE TEXAS. QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING REVEALED A SOLID GALE EVENT OCCURRING IN THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ONE 50 KT VECTOR EVEN NOTED. ANOTHER INTERESTING BYPRODUCT OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS SEAS JUMPED FROM 4 FT TO 18 FT AT BUOY 42002 LAST NIGHT IN 5 HOURS...WHICH WAS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT 4 FT BY WW3...AND ALSO OCCURRED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. EITHER WAY...THE EVENT IS NOW RELAXING FROM N TO S. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER INTO SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS BETWEEN CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN. A SMALL WNW/NW SWELL FROM THE FRONT WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO W FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS LIMITED TO THE WRN PORTION...WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN 78W-86W. THIS SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONG ATLC SFC HIGH NE OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE OVER THE CONVECTION SEEN STREAMING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXTENDING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WV IMAGERY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 77W. 1035 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE ATLC AREA. DRY MID TO UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC W OF 55W...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH MOISTURE AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE FL COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SW NORTH ATLC...WITH A 1036 MB CENTER JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N45W. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE ELY WINDS OVER THE WATERS E OF THE SRN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE E COAST SAT...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 31N76W TO 30N81W BY LATE SAT. UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING NEAR 25N51W...THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N23W 21N40W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THESE SYSTEMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 32W-50W. ERN ATLC DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. PERSISTENT WLY SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE. $$ WILLIS