000 AXNT20 KNHC 010506 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N23W 8N48W 6N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N FROM 40W-44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLIPPING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS E LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR NEAR 30N91W S INTO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W AND IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT...CLEARING MARKING THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N89W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN OVER THE E GULF. STREAMS OF SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF E OF THE FRONT...MOVING N TO OVER THE SE US. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE E GULF NEAR 85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM 65W-76W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE AREA N OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W ALONG 15N76W TO THE TIP OF W CUBA IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-20N W BETWEEN 80W-86W AND SW OF THE LINE OF DRY UPPER AIR. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N62W TO 15N76W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W EXTENDING OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 30N74W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W. STRONG SURFACE WINDS COVER THE AREA GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ALONG THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH 700 NM NE OF BERMUDA COVERS CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W S TO 12N56W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W SW TO 20N41W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 17N48W TO BEYOND 32N30W. OVER THE TROPICS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 3N40W NW TO NEAR 18N33W. $$ WALLACE