000 AXNT20 KNHC 302359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 44W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 6N40W 8N47W 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 32W-36W... AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THAT PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N92W 22N98W. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE NW WINDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS FROM THE SE AT 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 39F AT BEAUMONT TO 57F AT BROWNSVILLE. IN CONTRAST THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST REMAIN NEAR 75F THUS PRODUCING THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N82W PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A JETSTREAM WITH MOISTURE EXTENDS INLAND FROM N MEXICO TO LOUISIANA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LINE 24N107W 32N92W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE TO THE SE GULF AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRIDAY EVENING. CONVECTION IS FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 73W. IN FACT...SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N82W IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE W OF 70W. EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL SHOWERS OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND NRN SOUTH AMERICA S OF 13N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 34N65W. ELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 45W-80W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N27W 20N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 10W-60W. $$ FORMOSA