000 AXNT20 KNHC 301743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 10 KT. ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WITH THIS WAVE. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...MAINLY S OF 8N...WITH PERSISTENT SW TO W SHEAR OVER THE AREA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 6N44W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 175 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE NEAR THE ATLC PORTION OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S...AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NW GULF...WITH ABOUT A 30 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT NOTED AROUND THE BOUNDARY. LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW GULF OFF OF S/CENTRAL TEXAS WITH FRONT. AHEAD OF FRONT...FRESH SE/S FLOW CONTINUES AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS THE SW PORTION OF A STRONG HIGH IN THE ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO BEING ADVECTED N THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF WITH THIS FLOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 84W-92W. SIMILAR QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/LOWER CLOUDS NOTED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN WRN GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE INTO SAT WITH THE FRONT STALLING BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND THE YUCATAN...THOUGH SECONDARY PUSH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON AND KICK THROUGH FRONT FURTHER SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER E TO SE FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE. NARROW...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF 14N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WHICH SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE AND SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THE SAME REASONING MAY BE CAUSING THE SMALLER SCALE ACTIVITY JUST S OF WRN CUBA. STRONG ATLC SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RELAXING SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST N OF THE AREA IN THE WRN ATLC HAS FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO SE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 40W. THIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG SWELL THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND RELAX INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NE TO THE E OF THE AXIS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 45W. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N29W 18N46W. ERN ATLC DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM SW EUROPE. UPPER WLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 14N. $$ WILLIS 000 AXNT20 KNHC 301743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 10 KT. ONLY SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WITH THIS WAVE. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...MAINLY S OF 8N...WITH PERSISTENT SW TO W SHEAR OVER THE AREA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 6N44W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 175 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ELSEWHERE NEAR THE ATLC PORTION OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER SW FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF BETWEEN DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S...AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NW GULF...WITH ABOUT A 30 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT NOTED AROUND THE BOUNDARY. LINE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE FAR NW GULF OFF OF S/CENTRAL TEXAS WITH FRONT. AHEAD OF FRONT...FRESH SE/S FLOW CONTINUES AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS THE SW PORTION OF A STRONG HIGH IN THE ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO BEING ADVECTED N THROUGH THE MIDDLE GULF WITH THIS FLOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 84W-92W. SIMILAR QUICK MOVING SHOWERS/LOWER CLOUDS NOTED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN WRN GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE INTO SAT WITH THE FRONT STALLING BETWEEN CENTRAL FL AND THE YUCATAN...THOUGH SECONDARY PUSH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS/SEAS AGAIN LATE SUN INTO MON AND KICK THROUGH FRONT FURTHER SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER E TO SE FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE. NARROW...ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS PRODUCING MOSTLY WLY UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF 14N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WHICH SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE AND SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THE SAME REASONING MAY BE CAUSING THE SMALLER SCALE ACTIVITY JUST S OF WRN CUBA. STRONG ATLC SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA...WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RELAXING SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST N OF THE AREA IN THE WRN ATLC HAS FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO SE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 40W. THIS CONTINUES TO SPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG SWELL THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND RELAX INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NE TO THE E OF THE AXIS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 45W. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N29W 18N46W. ERN ATLC DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM SW EUROPE. UPPER WLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 14N. $$ WILLIS