000 AXNT20 KNHC 301119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SHOWERS WELL TO THE E OF THIS WAVE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N26W 9N40W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND N MEXICO APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY PRODUCING GALE FORCE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AT THIS TIME AND IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AND STRONG SE WINDS COVER THE GULF. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVING N OVER THE N GULF COAST AS RESULT OF THIS SURFACE FLOW. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 15N W OF 70W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 15N61W TO 13N74W...THUS UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. THE AREA N OF 14N IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. A WEAK 1006 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W COMBINED WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 72W USHERED IN ON THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W EXTENDING OVER THE N CARIBBEAN AND ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SAME AREA. STRONG SURFACE WINDS COVER THE AREA GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N72W ALONG THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W TO 32N81W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA COVERS CENTRAL AND W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W S ALONG 20N55W THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N29W SSW TO 25N37W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 14N57W WITH A SECOND SURGE COLD FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N37W 31N47W TO BEYOND 32N57W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N20W AND EXTENDS TO WELL INLAND OVER AFRICA. STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM 90-120 KT TO OVER 150 KT N OF THE REGION EXTENDS FROM 22N46W NNE TO BEYOND 32N37W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE JETSTREAM ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N...GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 18N49W TO BEYOND 32N32W. OVER THE TROPICS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 4N22W WNW TO NEAR 14N40W. A SECOND WEAKER JETSTREAM EXTENDS AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE TROPIC UPPER RIDGE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO 80 KT FROM 14N33W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 12N15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF 40W BETWEEN THE ITCZ AXIS AND 18N. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N16W SSW TO NEAR 19N33W. $$ WALLACE