000 AXNT20 KNHC 271803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N12W 6N20W 6N30W 5N40W 4N50W 3N53W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT PERSISTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 50W...MOSTLY SOUTH OF 7N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W IN THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND BEYOND THE EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWEST OF 19N80W-14N86W NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN PASSES OVER 20N108W AND STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD TO MOSTLY JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND BEYOND NORTH TEXAS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO EAST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND NEAR 28N100W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOT COUNTING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF 19N80W-14N86W... THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NEAR COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 22N60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS. A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 22N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N76W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W FROM 9N TO 16N...THE REMNANT OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. THE ITCZ IS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR 3N ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF 14N83W 10N76W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT GOES FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 34N51W TO 30N53W 25N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N59W TO 22N70W...CURVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N72W 25N60W 26N50W BEYOND 32N45W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THIS IS THE REMNANT OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A RIDGE GOES FROM 13N35W TO 23N38W BEYOND 32N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N21W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N25W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA PASSING THROUGH 32N30W TO 31N36W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 31N36W TO THE 34N51W TRIPLE POINT. $$ MT