000 AXNT20 KNHC 262341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 6N30W 7N40W 7N50W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N EAST OF 15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 25W-32W. SCATTRED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND THE GULF. MODERATE NE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE REGION. ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER A NE WIND FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIES ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 16N. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE ABC ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT LIES EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENTERS THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W. VERY DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E AND STRENGTHENS . THE GFS MODEL INDICATES A SWATH OF ELY 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE ATLC...THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS ALL THIS AREA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG 25N65W 22N72W TO E CUBA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW. SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH GOES FROM 31N32 16N54W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS LOCATED JUST EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NEWD FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 10N40W TO THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SURFACE HIGH...15-20 KT NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 20W-60W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING SOUTH. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR