000 AXNT20 KNHC 261819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 6N30W 8N46W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N106W BEYOND EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM INTERIOR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N69W TO 27N77W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF URABA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERN/ SOUTH CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W ALONG THE HONDURAS COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO IS NORTHWEST OF 21N79W 18N83W 16N87W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOT COUNTING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER/THE GULF OF URABA... INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 22N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS A REMNANT OF AN EARLIER LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ALONG 77W/78W FROM 9N TO 17N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING UP DURING THE LAST FIVE HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 80W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ON FRIDAY A FEW DAYS AGO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N62W...TO 27N63W AND 22N70W AND 21N72W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N72W TO 20N74W...JUST WEST OF JAMAICA TO 18N80W...TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W AND INLAND TO 15N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 23N67W TO 25N60W TO 30N55W BEYOND 32N54W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 70W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS 32N60W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 29N69W 27N77W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 30N58W 28N60W 25N70W 23N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 5N32W TO 10N40W 14N43W 19N39W 25N29W BEYOND 31N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THIS RIDGE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS LOCATED FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W. $$ MT