000 AXNT20 KNHC 260532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N29W 8N48W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-47W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FARTHER NW FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-55W ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LOW E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF IS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL AS SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. BREEZY 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS IN THE ERN AND CNTRL GULF IS ADVECTING SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH SOME BROKEN CLOUDS PUSHING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE THE LOW-LAYER OF MOISTURE THERE IS LIMITED DEPTH TO THE CLOUDS. LIGHTER E TO SE WINDS EXIST IN THE WRN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SLIGHT UPPER TROUGHING LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED 175 NM N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N78W. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BEGINNING TO FORM N OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 78W-79W. OVERALL...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A SLOWLY WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS WRN JAMAICA TO ERN HONDURAS. DEEP MOISTURE IS ALSO FAIRLY LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS...IS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AND SPREADING IT ABOVE THE SFC FRONT INTO THE ATLC WITH CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS NOTED BETWEEN 72W-82W. VERY DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN AND THE EXTREME WRN CARIB SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE THIS MORNING AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES DEVELOPS TO THE N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA W OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E OF BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 32N59W 25N67W 20N74W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N63W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTEND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE S OF 26N. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 32N43W 22N52W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 12N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO ITS E NEAR 11N43W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 5N-17N BETWEEN 35W-55W. THIS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BECOMES HIGHLY ELONGATED AS THE NRN BRANCH OF THE SHORTWAVE TO ITS W IS IMPINGING ON IT. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER IN THE TROPICS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 23N35W 32N29W. AN AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO BEING PRODUCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF 25N BETWEEN 34W-43W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE EXTREME ERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM SPAIN ACROSS WRN AFRICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH AXIS OUT TO 33W. AT THE SFC...MODERATE HIGH PRES RIDGING IS A GOOD PHRASE TO DESCRIBE THE PATTERN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N30W. THIS HIGH PRES IS INTERRUPTED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK LOW MENTIONED E OF BERMUDA. $$ CANGIALOSI