000 AXNT20 KNHC 252345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N78W OR ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH OF PANAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10-14N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 35W-46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 52W-60W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND GOES FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF TOMORROW. VERY DRY AIR...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND THE GULF. MODERATE NE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70-90 NM OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 74W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE ABC ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W-82W. VERY DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WWD. FRESH NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E. LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A STRONG 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED SE OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WEST OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM E OF BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 25N66W 20N75W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF 25N. SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STILL COVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIGS INTO THE TROPICS TO AN UPPER LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 38W-42W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NWD ALONG 40W41W FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 8N42W. DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE CANARY/CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LIES SOUTH OF 10N. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N32W COVERING THE ATLC EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SURFACE HIGH...MODERATE NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 20W-60W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 36W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR