000 AXNT20 KNHC 251124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N27W 8N46W 10N57W. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-43W AND FARTHER NW FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 43W-52W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGING EXISTS BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF VERY STABLE/DRY AIR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS FLOWING CLOCKWISE AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE ONLY AREA OF MOISTURE MENTIONABLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC DRAGGING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE BREEZE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING THESE SHOWERS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPS ARE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WHICH IS QUITE A RECOVERY FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. CONTINUED WARMING AND SLIGHT MOISTENING IS EXPECTED AS THE LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. A BURST OF MODERATE CONVECTION FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED AND PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. OVERALL...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WHICH IS STATIONARY FROM HAITI ACROSS ERN JAMAICA TO NEAR 14N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING FRONT. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS QUIET WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IN PLACE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N68W AND UPPER LOW/NARROW TROUGH JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF THE AREA BUT SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE SW ATLC W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS AREA IS W OF A SLOWLY WEAKENING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N62W TO 25N67W TO WRN HAITI. MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR VERY DEEP ALONG THE FRONT...BASED ON IR IMAGERY...BUT THERE ARE LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. A LARGE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE LIES E OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC FRONT AND COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC BETWEEN 25W-60W ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N35W. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE IS BEING ERODED BY A NARROW UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N54W TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEEP IN THE TROPICS NEAR 13N57W. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SFC WITH THE AXIS DRAWN ALONG 58W/59W FROM 11N-19N. THE DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...REFER TO THAT SECTION FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXIST ON THE MOIST E SIDE OF THE NRN UPPER LOW FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 47W-53W. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN-MOST ATLC JUST W OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 10N20W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLC SUPPORTED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N37W AND A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE WRN CAROLINAS. THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGING BETWEEN 60W-75W DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE CNTRL/WRN ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI