000 AXNT20 KNHC 250004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 7N20W 6N31W 8N40W 10N46W 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF BETWEEN 50W AND 60W... SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND NORTH OF 2N EAST OF 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF THE 32N63W-TO-WINDWARD PASSAGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS 33N73W TO 27N74W...STILL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM COASTAL GEORGIA TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL/ NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N80W 25N90W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 31N65W TO 23N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N57W 13N59W 8N59W IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N56W 15N58W 12N59W. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE TROUGH MOVES MORE AND MORE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO IS IN PLACE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 14N77W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BEYOND 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF 11N73W IS DISSIPATING FROM 10N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N57W 13N59W 8N59W IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N56W 15N58W 12N59W. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE TROUGH MOVES MORE AND MORE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 26N64W TO 22N70W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH... ALONG 13N51W 20N50W 28N52W 32N54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 27N24W 19N27W 10N29W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. $$ MT