000
AXNT20 KNHC 240506
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N22W 6N42W 5N58W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N 
BETWEEN 26W-30W AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 30W-53W. SCATTERED 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 
4N-9N BETWEEN 7W-20W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE E US AND GULF OF 
MEXICO COVERS THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W WITH THE REMAINDER 
IN THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO N OVER 
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE SE GULF. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE THE BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE GULF 
WITH A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 
SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE S 
GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS W 
CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER 
THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO CUBA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING S 
TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF E PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE 
FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI. MOSTLY OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 
THE FRONT TO 83W WITH STRONG NLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND N VENEZUELA E 
OF 72W. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 80W AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W 
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N 
OF 15N E OF 69W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF 
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH 32N75W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 
23N79W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC 
NEAR 32N67W S TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S 
OF 22N FROM 70W-74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W 
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. ELONGATED MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE 
N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
ESE/WNW. STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC 
THROUGH 32N11W SW ALONG 20N25W THEN WNW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
22N60W THEN S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THUS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER 
HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ATLC WITHIN 300/350 NM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 8N47W NW TO 20N52W AND A SECOND RIDGE 
AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS 
MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 
57W FROM 8N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-16N 
BETWEEN 55W-60W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
WALLACE