000
AXNT20 KNHC 240145 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 23 2006

COR TO INCLUDE A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 300 NM EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 6N24W 7N40W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 36W. ISOLATED 
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...AND FROM 
8N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 2W AND 30W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
ABOUT 70 NM EAST OF NEW JERSEY...THROUGH 31N77W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...AND POSSIBLY A BIT INTO THE EAST CENTRAL WATERS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE
AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWARD SOUTH OF 31N WEST OF 70W. 
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 24N. 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 90W 
BECAUSE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 
24N WEST OF 90W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS INTO TEXAS EAST OF 100W BEYOND CENTRAL 
OKLAHOMA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS STRAIGHT SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...AND
THEN IT CUTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO 
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W 
IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALSO IS IN PLACE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM 
PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 14N76W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 
BEYOND 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 16N76W 
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS TO 30N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N59W TO
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N62W
INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W...
AND FROM PANAMA TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 7N TO 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W
AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 17N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 
PRECIPITATION MAY MAINTAIN ITS CONSISTENCY AND MOVE INTO THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT THIS SYSTEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAY MAINTAIN ITS 
CONSISTENCY AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N59W TO
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
13N62W INTO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR AXIS GOES FROM 17N30W
TO 23N44W TO 25N52W. THIS AREA IS BEING STRETCHED...IN BETWEEN 
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...AND THE 22N59W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 
15N32W 20N47W...AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 66W. A MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A REMNANT EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N17W TO 21N26W TO 16N27W
TO 12N25W. A WEAK TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD
OF THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 23/1730 UTC ALONG 
40W FROM 20N TO 24N/25N.  

$$
MT