000
AXNT20 KNHC 231809
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N20W 5N30W 6N60W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 26W-38W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
9N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W.  5-10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S 
GULF S OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N 
AND OVER FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA ALONG 20N74W 15N77W 9N78W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT.  A SURFACE LOW MAY BE TRYING TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF 
PANAMA NEAR 10N78W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W MOVING S.  FURTHER 
MORE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND W OF 80W.  
FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 
13N63W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK W AS A WARM FRONT 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE A 
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.  LASTLY...MORE CONVECTION 
WILL ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING 
SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG 55W.         

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE FRONT IS OVER THE THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS ALONG 
32N75W 25N78W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 32N67W TO 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N47W.  MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW IS 
FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 15W-60W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N59W.  
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N30W.  A JETSTREAM IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LINE 14N35W 22N10W.    

$$
FORMOSA