000 AXNT20 KNHC 231113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N24W 4N35W 6N50W 5N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 2.5N FROM 33W-40W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N45W-8N40W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N FROM 28W-40W AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 93W. VERY DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N93W. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE S GULF...THICKEST OVER THE SE S OF 28N E OF 89W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF E PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 13N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N FROM 70W-78W MOSTLY OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI. MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO FILTER S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N65W COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W GIVING THE AREA S OF 17N FROM 57W-62W SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N69W S TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS THE FAR N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W. STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N15W SW ALONG 23N29W THEN W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N56W THUS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 20N WITH A JETSTREAM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 70-90 KT E OF 55W TO OVER AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N52W TO 13N55W. $$ WALLACE