000
AXNT20 KNHC 230548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N30W 7N46W 5N54W. SCATTERED 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 26N-48N.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF 
THE CAROLINAS COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO W 
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
N ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST TO 
TEXAS. VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
GULF. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
OVER THE GULF WITH A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA/ 
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N93W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN 
OVER THE S GULF...THICKEST OVER THE SE S OF 27N E OF 88W WHILE 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLC EXTENDS 
ACROSS W CUBA TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE COAST 
OF E PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-79W 
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO FILTER S OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG NLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N63W COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W GIVING THE 
LESSER ANTILLES SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY 
UPPER AIR AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W AND E 
CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OFF 
THE CAROLINAS COAST THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA 
PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC 
NEAR 32N66W S TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO 
FILTER S OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N57W. STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NE ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W SW ALONG 24N34W TO AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR 23N54W THUS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE 
N/CENTRAL ATLC. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 30W-67W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 20N WITH S JETSTREAM ALONG THE N 
PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 70-90 KT E OF 50W TO OVER AFRICA. AT 
THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE 
SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 29N31W TO 20N35W. 

$$
WALLACE