000
AXNT20 KNHC 221205
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 5N25W 5N40W 4N58W. 1SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND...FROM 6N TO 
12N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 
62W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 31N79W OFF THE COASTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS 
EVERYWHERE. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF T.D. SERGIO IN THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT TEMPERATURES 
IN THE 30'S AND 40'S IN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THESE COLDER 
TEMPERATURES ARE COURTESY OF ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER 
TEMPERATURES AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT DEPARTED FROM THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N71W TO 28N70W... OVER HAITI...AND 
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF 
OF URABA. IT IS NOT TOO OFTEN THAT A COLD FRONT REACHES THIS 
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE 
COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N75W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE BEYOND 
BERMUDA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W...AND ALONG 
THE COAST OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N78W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE OCCURRING IN THE WATERS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN END OF 
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N72W 25N70W BEYOND 
32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS OUT IN THE EASTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...EVENTUALLY REACHING 22N58W...THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAINT LUCIA...FINALLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS UP
AGAINST THE COAST OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N27W TO 25N37W TO 
24N46W TO 22N58W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAINT 
LUCIA AND FINALLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 65W. A 1018 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N33W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO 28N34W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF CLOUDS AROUND THE CENTER 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 
27N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 
ITCZ IN THE DEEP TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF 
52W ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.    

$$
MT