000
AXNT20 KNHC 220720 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006

COR FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 8N20W 8N33W 6N46W 7N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE LOCATED FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W....
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 31N81W JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST...
AND NEARLY DUE EAST OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
FLORIDA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 
40'S IN FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY 
MORNING TODAY. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE COURTESY OF
ANOTHER BLAST OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
DEPARTED FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1004 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N77W TO 26N71W TO NORTHEASTERN HAITI.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N72W 26N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE RUNS FROM HAITI BEYOND BERMUDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO HAITI...AND 
BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS ARE 
MOVING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HAITI FROM 17N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 13N73W AND 
13N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N76W 14N77W 
TO 10N79W JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. IT IS NOT TOO OFTEN 
THAT A COLD FRONT REACHES THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N27W TO 25N37W TO
24N46W TO 20N58W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 4N64W WITH 
THE BRAZIL BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 20N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 64W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 
24N33W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N34W. THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW OF CLOUDS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM
20N TO 32N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 27W AND 
30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE ITCZ IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF 52W ARE CURVING 
ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.    

$$
MT