000
AXNT20 KNHC 211156
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 5N20W 3N26W 3N40W...CURVING TO 1S47W IN BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN 
CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
25W AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS...TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND 
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANT 
CIRCULATION OF T.D. SERGIO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS
BEING CARRIED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY FLOW
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN 
CUBA...AND ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT
FOR THE REMNANT T.D. SERGIO MOISTURE MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE END OF LAST WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
AREA TO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION...BEYOND HISPANIOLA. BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS 
EVIDENT EVERYWHERE AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N69W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN 
JAMAICA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14N81W...
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AT THE PANAMA COAST.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...AND SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 
82W...FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA TO 
PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI...AND SOUTH OF 
JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA BEYOND 
BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 
30N69W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
29N68W 26N69W 24N70W 21N71W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 20N51W T0 THE 
GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS 
WITHIN 700 TO 800 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF 30N...AND
WITHIN 400 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 30N. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS NEAR 28N23W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 30N21W 23N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 16W AND 
30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE ITCZ IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF 52W ARE CURVING 
ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA.    

$$
MT