000
AXNT20 KNHC 210616
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 5N20W 3N26W 3N36W 2N42W THE EQUATOR AT 46W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL/
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TO
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANT 
CIRCULATION OF T.D. SERGIO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS BEING 
CARRIED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND 
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST TROUGH...ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FLORIDA...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR
THE REMNANT T.D. SERGIO MOISTURE BAND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE END OF LAST 
WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
AREA TO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE 
IS EVIDENT EVERYWHERE AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N64W TO 24N70W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA 
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO A 1009 MB WEST CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N80W...TO 10N81W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N76W 16N75W 18N74W...AND 18N72W
21N72W 24N71W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 77W...AND WITHIN 360 NM WEST
OF THE LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEYOND
BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 
30N64W TO 24N70W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
TO JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N72W 21N72W 24N71W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W TO 20N52W T0 THE GUYANA/SURINAME BORDER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN 30N47W 21N46W
AND 30N58W 20N65W...AND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 17N40W 12N50W 
6N54W SOUTH OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N50W 27N53W 
23N55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N22W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS 
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 10W AND 
40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ON TOP OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N25W TO 6N39W TO 7N53W. HIGH CLOUDS 
FROM 10N TO 20N EAST OF 55W ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH 
THE AREA.    

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