000 AXNT20 KNHC 192310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW IS GOING TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER HIGH COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THUS MASKING ANY TRUE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N21W 6N39W 4N52W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 16W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR HAS MOVED SE ACROSS THE GULF WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO OVERRUN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 26N92W. THE DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS MEXICO FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE GULF LEAVING THE GULF RELATIVELY SHOWER FEW THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 75W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM 69W-75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION OVER BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W EXTENDING ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. THE DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N60W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 28N66W. NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N50W S ALONG 25N50W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH... REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...EXTENDS FROM 24N52W 19N52W TO 14N54W THUS WEAKENING THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N56W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 14N42W N TO BEYOND 32N44W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N FROM 45W-52W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 38W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 19N-30N BETWEEN 18W-26W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE