000
AXNT20 KNHC 191739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  A 
RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS 
NEAR 11N81.5 W.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 
76W-85W.   
 
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 6N40W 4N52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 
25W-39W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 45W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 36N99W.  HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  WINDS ARE NLY AT 10-20 KT.  NO CONVECTION IS NOTED.  
TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 50 F OVER MOBILE ALABAMA TO 76 
F OVER BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL WLY FLOW 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE GULF N OF 20N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY 
NLY SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE AND EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
SEA WITH CONVECTION...SEE ABOVE.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 
72W-75W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 
60W-100W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE W OF 70W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE 
SURFACE LOW TO STAY STATIONARY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND DEEPEN 
WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE.  THE ERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS S TO E CUBA 
ALONG 32N66W 27N70W 20N75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E 
OF FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 66W-70W.  A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N57W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 22N51W 17N51W 13N53W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-45W DUE TO A 1031 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 40N34W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW IS 
N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E WITH AXIS ALONG 
45W.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N23W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-38N BETWEEN 10W-40W.    

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FORMOSA