000 AXNT20 KNHC 191133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 58W IS RELOCATED ALONG 56W/57W BASED ON SURFACE DATA. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE AND MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N AND NEAR 9N80W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS MORNING WEST OF 22W. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N25W 5N35W 5N45W 2N50W. PATCHES OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 22W-37W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO THIS AREA STARTING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER COOL OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES OF U.S. INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM T.S. SERGIO LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH A FEW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE EAST OF FLORIDA OVER THE W ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...RESULTING IN STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W EXTENDING S TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SOME SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER EASTERN CUBA. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 31N58W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N54W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR 22N50W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 16N53W. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL SHOWING A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW. ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 22N50W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW COVERING FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 45W-50W. A SECOND NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE TROPICS ALONG 40W/41W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N23W. CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 21W-28W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC. $$ GR