000
AXNT20 KNHC 181756
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  
SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 
21N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED.  ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA. 

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N20W 6N40W 5N55W 6N60W. 
THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE E OF 50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-10W...AND FROM 
5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 22W-50W.       

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEAR 
43N98W.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  WINDS ARE NLY AT 5-10 KT.  NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED.  TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 57 F OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO 73 F OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N WHERE 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  EXPECT 
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF N OF 20N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
MOSTLY NLY SURFACE WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  SEE ABOVE.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 22N78W 19N81W 14N83W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  EXPECT THE FRONT 
TO STAY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EXPECT THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 22N78W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT.  A 
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N59W PRODUCING 
HIGH SEAS AND SWELL.  ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 19N51W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
18N-21N BETWEEN 47W-51W.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 15W-47W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 74W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER E ALONG 
68W.  A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N51W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 45W-60W.  A RIDGE 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 
42W.    

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FORMOSA