000
AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING 
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS 
NEAR 16N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-24N BETWEEN 44W-52W.  

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 19N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED HOWEVER.  

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 6N50W 6N60W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-30W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 
30W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 
41W-46W.   

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W.  HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE 
SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED SE INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  WINDS ARE ANTICYCLONIC AT 5-10 KT.  NO CONVECTION IS 
NOTED.  TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 55 F OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO 73 F OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE S GULF S OF 
THE LINE 26N80W 20N96W WHERE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND CLOUDS ARE NOTED.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY NLY SURFACE WINDS.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  SEE ABOVE.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 22N79W 18N84W 15N90W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 78W-84W.  THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  EXPECT  THE FRONT 
TO GO STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EXPECT THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 22N79W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1012 MB LOW 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N56W PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND 
SWELL.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N50W 29N56W 25N60W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 56W-60W.  A 
1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N36W.  HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGING IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS 
FURTHER E ALONG 70W.  A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 25N56W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-35N BETWEEN 
50W-65W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 50W WITH 
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 40W.    

$$
FORMOSA