000
AXNT20 KNHC 170610
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 30N54W TO 22N60W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING ALONG
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 19N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 30N54W TO
THE NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 
45W AND 50W...PROBABLY MUCH MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND
NOT THERE BECAUSE OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 6N37W CURVING TO 12N48W...11N54W 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 43W. THIS INCLUDES PRECIPITATION
IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER INTERIOR 
SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS TROUGH
RUNS THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND
BEYOND SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD 
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO 26N80W...TO WESTERN CUBA...
TO THE COUNTRY OF BELIZE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE 
WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N79W 29N76W BEYOND 
32N74W...EVERYTHING IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST NORTH OF 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR COVER THE 
AREA EAST OF 70W...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE TROUGH GOES FROM 30N54W TO 
22N60W...AND THEN TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 
11N63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. A 64W/65W TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AND DRY AIR. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND 
ENDS IN BELIZE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED NOW IN COASTAL HONDURAS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 85W AND 
88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF 
HONDURAS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF 21N82W 16N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PROBABLY RELATED
TO THE ITCZ...ARE SOUTH OF 14N FROM 73W TO THE COAST OF 
NICARAGUA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER INTERIOR 
SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS TROUGH 
RUNS THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WATERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND BEYOND 32N73W. THIS RIDGE IS FOLLOWED 
TO THE EAST BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STARTS OUT 
IN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE TROUGH STARTS NEAR 30N54W AND EXTENDS 
TO 22N60W...AND TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 
11N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH...NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. DRY AIR IS MOVING 
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 
70W...SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N TO 32N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST WEST OF 
SPAIN/PORTUGAL AND MOROCCO...OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W.

$$
MT