000 AXNT20 KNHC 161207 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND NOT WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE MAY BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY MOSTLY RELATED TO THE TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS ALONG 36W FROM 11N TO 32N. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 6N20W 7N30W 9N40W 12N47W 11N51W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS GAINED A WHOLE LOT OF STRENGTH...AND NOW IT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD. THIS DEEP LAYER SYSTEM IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS... TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FRONT HAS BROKEN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE REACHING AT LEAST 30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE GULF WATERS WEST OF THE FRONT...AND AT LEAST 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO NO LONGER COVERS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 80W... AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE JUST ENTERED THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA ALONG 61W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...ARE SOUTH OF 14N FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ENERGY FROM THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. IS SET TO HELP TO RE-ENERGIZE THE ALREADY EXISTING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GET READY FOR THE FRONT TO HIT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT THAT TIME. THE ORGANIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME STRUNG OUT WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CENTERS FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS AREA TO 23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS ALONG 36W FROM 11N TO 32N. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. $$ MT