000
AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF 
JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.
IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT...ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. REMNANT MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS EXISTS FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS...PROBABLY DISSIPATING...FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 58W AND 60W...AND PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 16N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS ALONG
36W/37W FROM 10N TO 32N. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 
48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON 
THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 7N20W 7N30W 9N40W 12N45W 11N50W 12N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 5N20W...WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
5N20W 5N30W...BETWEEN 30W AND 40W FROM THE EQUATOR AT 33W-
6N40W TO 10N. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS GAINED A WHOLE LOT 
OF STRENGTH...AND NOW IT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 90W. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA/THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA TO JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 18N102W 
22N90W 23N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS DRY AIR...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 24N87W 28N84W BEYOND 32N82W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W INCLUDING IN 
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N85W
23N88W 20N92W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA
COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
24 HOURS AGO NO LONGER COVERS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTHWEST 
OF JAMAICA...AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN
SECTION OF THE AREA ALONG 60W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST 
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. OTHER SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO 
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ...ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 
75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN FORTIFIED
BY THE ENERGY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO INTO THE AREA OF THE CAROLINAS 
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD 
FRONT REACHES 31N69W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 
24N80W 26N67W TO 31N/32N. THE ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME 
STRUNG OUT WITH MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CENTERS FROM 28N TO 33N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS AREA TO 22N60W 
TO 17N55W TO 10N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 44W AND 52W....ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. AN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 16N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW IS ALONG 
36W/37W FROM 10N TO 32N. THIS WAVE IS AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE. SCATTERED 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W AND 
48W. 

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MT