000 AXNT20 KNHC 152353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING AND A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. A WIND SURGE IS ALSO BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 38W-44W. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS WAVE ON FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. VERY SMALL AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N56W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE WAVE OVER GUYANA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 11N44W 12N57W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 200 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 31W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF TONIGHT IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICAN COAST MIDWAY BETWEEN TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ. THIS CITY IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT. A STRONG SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS AFFECTING THE STATE OF GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS SQUALL LINE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT. STRONG SW FLOW IS AHEAD OF FRONT. NW WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NW GULF. THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING E/SE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WESTERN CUBA LATER. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST W OF NRN COLOMBIA. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU...THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL BLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE BASIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC TO 32N72W AND BEYOND GIVING THE AREA VERY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N58W TO LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 35W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RUNS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO E CUBA AND THE W ATLC ALONG 20N...THEN CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 44N46W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC EAST OF 45W. IN BETWEEN...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEAR 29N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE SFC LOW. HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT LIES ALONG 50W FROM 9N-20N. A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ GR