000 AXNT20 KNHC 151129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF PANAMA SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. REMNANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS IS ALREADY IN THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER THE 9N40W 15N35W 22N32W 26N26W 32N21W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN THIS AREA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE RIDGE ARE FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 34W AND 46W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE MIXED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ... 7N11W 3N26W 10N44W 11N47W 10N54W 10N57W 10N62W. 8N13W 6N25W 11N44W 11N46W 12N53W 12N55W 10N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE 5N10W 5N15W 2N24W 6N29W 7N35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS ALL OF TEXAS AND MEXICO NORTH OF 27N. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THIS TIME...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA COMPLETELY BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 24N80W 22N90W AND 21N AT THE MEXICO GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N44W TO 25N48W TO 17N52W TO 9N56W AND 6N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. A 75W/76W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN FORTIFIED BY THE ENERGY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO INTO THE AREA OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 31N69W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 24N80W 26N67W TO 31N/32N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N44W TO 25N48W TO 17N52W TO 9N56W AND 6N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N48W TO 27N47W 23N50W AND 19N57W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 9N40W 15N35W 22N32W 26N26W 32N21W. $$ MT