000
AXNT20 KNHC 150607
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 
16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS 
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING 
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. REMNANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 
FROM A TROUGH DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS IS ALREADY IN THE AREA 
THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 
14N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER THE 10N41W 18N39W 22N31W
26N27W 31N27W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN THIS AREA FOR 
THE LAST THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 6N25W 11N44W 11N46W 12N53W 12N55W 10N64W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 5N9W 3N15W 4N21W 6N27W 8N32W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEW MEXICO INTO TEXAS 
TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO ZIPPED ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST...
AND NOW FINDS ITSELF ALONG A LINE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N70W. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS DEVELOPING IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 19N105W 22N90W 25N80W 
28N70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THIS 
19N105W 28N70W LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N45W TO
20N54W TO 14N55W TO 7N60W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. A 74W/75W CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE 
ITCZ. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN FORTIFIED
BY THE ENERGY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO INTO THE AREA OF THE CAROLINAS 
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT REMAINS AND PASSES
THROUGH 33N67W TO 31N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 
31N68W TO 27N72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO 24N51W TO 16N57W TO 
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
RUNS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N48W TO 24N50W 
AND 20N55W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 33N BETWEEN 36W AND 49W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 
10N41W 18N39W 22N31W 26N27W 31N27W.

$$
MT