000
AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS A BROAD INVERTED V 
PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 36W-46W. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 17N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTED THE 
WAVE FAIRLY WELL.  CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED FROM THE W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 
10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 16N 
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS IN THE LOW CLOUD 
FIELD.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA 
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-76W.  

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 6N30W 9N40W 13N53W 
9N63W.  ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 
33W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS ARE 10-20 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT INLAND OVER SRN 
MISSISSIPPI.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N 
BETWEEN 88W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE 
ENTIRE GULF.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE SRN GULF 
S OF 24N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE N OF 
24N.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER N TEXAS TO BE 
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH CONVECTION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE 
ABOVE.  LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE SEA.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...PANAMA...AND COSTA 
RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED 
ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 
70W.   THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 70W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 13N... 
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N68W 
27N72W 24N77W.  A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N48W GENERATING HIGH SEAS AND SWELL.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
ALONG 30N44W 25N46W 22N51W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM 
E OF TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE E 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A LARGE BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.    

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FORMOSA