000 AXNT20 KNHC 141802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE EXHIBITS A BROAD INVERTED V PATTERN ON THIS AFTERNOONS VIS IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING STRETCHED TO THE NE WITH UPPER SW FLOW AROUND A RIDGE JUST E OF THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING DEPICTED THE WAVE FAIRLY WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 48W-54W. ASSOCIATED TOPS ALSO BEING SHEARED TO THE NE. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THAT IS REALLY FROM THE WAVE...OR JUST A NATURAL BYPRODUCT OF THE TRADE FLOW SPREADING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AROUND THE ADJACENT OROGRAPHY. REGARDLESS...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITH DRY MID TO UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE AREA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N30W 10N45W 12N55W 10N62W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 30W-38W. THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF PANAMA ALSO ATTRIBUTED TO THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... OVERALL ZONAL MID TO UPPER FLOW WITH JUST A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY AIR DOMINATING THE GULF N OF 25N...WHILE DEBRIS UPPER MOISTURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS DOWNSTREAM FROM EPAC CONVECTION INCLUDING THAT FROM RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM SERGIO. DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL OVER THE GULF ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS SEEN JUST S OF LOUISIANA IN WARMER/LESS STABLE AIR. A WEAK 1016 MB SFC HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER N FLORIDA ON THE 1500 UTC MAP. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SEAS LOW E OF 80W. W OF 80W...10-15KT SLY FLOW BEING OBSERVED WITH ASSOCIATED AND 2-3 FT S WIND WAVES. RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ANTICIPATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER ZONAL FLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM EPAC CONVECTION. SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N86W...OVER A WEAK REGION OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW THROUGH THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM AN ORIGIN NEAR NRN COLOMBIA. MOSTLY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRADES ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...15KT OR BELOW...WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN NOTED AT THE SFC. FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC AT 31N68W AND CONTINUES SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NOTED...WITH THE BOUNDARY INSTEAD MARKED BY A RAGGED LINE OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS. ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAKENING WELL N OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ALSO ADVECTING ABUNDANT HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. NEXT INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 29N47W THAT HAS A 1009 MB SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY. CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 200 NM OF ANY SIDE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG 1040 MB BLOCKING HIGH TO ITS NORTH NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...IT WILL SEND A SMALL TO MODERATE ENE SWELL TO EXPOSED FLORIDA AND BAHAMA BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM...WITH LESS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOW NOTED A PAIR OF SFC TROUGHS ANALYZED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT ZONES IN THE VICINITY. THE FIRST IS ALONG 21N54W 26N46W THEN CONNECTS TO THE SFC LOW. THE OTHER IS FURTHER E ALONG 23N42W 28N37W 31N26W. THE LATTER HAS MORE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE. PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALSO DOMINATING THE E ATLC WITH A 1018MB CENTER NEAR 26N28W. $$ WILLIS