000 AXNT20 KNHC 140615 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO FIND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ALREADY DISSIPATED BY NOW...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. THAT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE PART OF THE TRADEWIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W ARE PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N49W TO 21N55W TO 12N63W TO THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N68W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER THE SAME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THE 49W/50W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. ...THE ITCZ... 13N17W 10N20W 8N30W 10N39W 10N41W 9N45W 10N48W 11N51W 11N55W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN U.S.A...FROM NEW MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N49W TO 21N55W TO 12N63W TO THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 76W...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA GOING INLAND IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 22N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOSTLY NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 76W. SOME DRY AIR HAS MOVED SOUTH OF 30N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 29N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N79W 26N72W 31N67W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N49W TO 21N55W TO 12N63W TO THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N48W TO 26N50W AND 22N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 10N47W TO 16N42W TO 26N34W TO 32N31W. $$ MT