000 AXNT20 KNHC 131754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 47W S OF 15N ON THE 1200 UTC MAP BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 45W-47W. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG 64W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT...BUT LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS IS PROBABLY FARTHER WEST ALONG 67W/68W...WHERE A WEAK INVERTED V-SHAPE PATTERN IS SEEN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE WAVE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N30W 10N45W 11N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 28W-44W. BASED ON UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR 36W/37W...WHERE SOME TURNING AND A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ARE NOTED. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INCLUDED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GULF FROM A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS IN THE EPAC CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF IS BEGINNING TO WASH OUT WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY WED WITH NLY WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. THIS FRONT PROMISES TO BRING TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...ENTERING THE REGION JUST SE OF GUADELOUPE. ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS INVADING THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THIS REGION. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE ELY TRADE WINDS IS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THESE ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE IS JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS BERMUDA. A CUT-OFF LOW IS NEAR 30N50W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 38W-44W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N70W...THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. A MID/UPPER CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE MID ATLC STATES N OF 29N IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT SOUTH OF 30N. AN UPPER RIDGE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 35W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 34N/35N ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ GR