000 AXNT20 KNHC 131149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO FIND. SOME EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD FIELD STILL IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N49W AND GOES TO 22N57W... INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W...TO THE AREA OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N44W 14N50W 12N54W 12N60W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER WITH THE ITCZ. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 83W. ...THE ITCZ... 9N11W 7N30W 10N40W 12N52W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 40W...FROM 5N TO 13W BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N. THE SOUTHERN END OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO 25N/26N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE END OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT CURVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N49W AND GOES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH 20N61W TO 17N63W... TO THE AREA OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCED ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER WITH THE ITCZ. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 83W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N72W TO 21N70W. A SURFACE COLD FRONT...BEING SUPPORTED BY THE 32N72W 21N70W TROUGH...PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N76W... CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND ENDING NEAR 25N/26N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N64W TO 26N68W 26N70W. A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STARTS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N49W AND GOES TO 22N57W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W...TO THE AREA OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 40W TO AFRICA...EAST OF THE 32N72W 29N49W TO 17N63W TROUGH. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM 30N50W AND CURVES TO THE 30N46W TRIPLE POINT. A WARM FRONT CURVES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 27N42W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 23N487W AND 18N56W. THE STRATIFORM CLOUD FIELD STILL HAS A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT TO IT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE END OF THE COLD FRONT AND 20N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. $$ MT