000 AXNT20 KNHC 121753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-61W. WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE SHEARING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TRINIDAD REPORTED HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIME. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 7N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 30N-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE U.S. AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FL TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...BUT BASED ON THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE RELOCATED AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT. MYERS TO 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SWD ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GULF FROM A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS IN THE EPAC ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ROSA AND SHORT-LIVED T.D. 20-E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND VEER E. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF WED WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...ENTERING THE REGION JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO TO THE ABC ISLANDS. ABUNDANT DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN WHERE THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N-77W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THIS AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS PRETTY QUIET. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES NEWD FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS BERMUDA. A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOWS ARE ALONG 30N...COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST ALONG 27N56W 21N62W...ENTERING THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1012 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N51W TO 20N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR HISPANIOLA. A BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. WLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 28N BETWEEN 20W-50W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS... THE UPPER-LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED BUT IS STILL PRODUCING A BROAD BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. $$ GR