000 AXNT20 KNHC 120533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE AFTER PERSISTENT STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WIDESPREAD STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAVE TAKEN TOLL. NO DEEP CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TRACK W AS A SHALLOW FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N31W 7N45W 10N57W 10N62W. THE AXIS REMAINS QUIET WITH ONLY ONE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MODERATE COLD FRONT IS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA...AS OF 03Z IT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 24N90W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THE FRONT IS THEN HUNG UP ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE IN MEXICO. N-NE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRES HAS BUILT SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO DROPPED NOTICEABLY...FROM THE 60'S AND 70S' ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA TO DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50'S AND TEMPS IN THE 50'S AND 60'S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS NOT EASILY DEFINED USING NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES AS THERE IS A LOT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MASKING ANY LOW-LEVEL SIGNAL. THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE GULF AS IT IS CONTINUOUSLY BEING ADVECTED FROM A LARGE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE EPAC ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ROSA AND SHORT-LIVED T.D. 20-E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME N OF 24N W OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN THRU THE DAY. CARIBBEAN... THE CARIB REMAINS QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF DRY/STABLE SINKING AIR ALOFT IN PLACE. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PRODUCING THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WRN CARIB NEAR 16N81W AND SLIGHT RIDGING E OF THE AREA IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAKNESS LIES ABOVE THE CNTRL CARIB INDUCED BY A WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE N/NE. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS IN THE EXTREME SW CARIB WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-81W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE ARE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY AIR REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OR SLACKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF...OR MORE LIKELY REMNANTS OF...STALL ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIB. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY FLATTENED. SLIGHT ELONGATED RIDGING STRETCHES NWD FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS BERMUDA. A WEAKENING TROUGH LIES E OF THE RIDGE FROM A CUT OFF NEAR 33N52W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE CUT OFF LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED AND ANALYZED AT 1008 MB AT THE SFC WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N50W 24N55W 21N63W THEN STATIONARY TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. THE TRANSITION FROM AN UPPER TROUGH TO A STACKED LOW WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL E OF 60W...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW IN THE E ATLC HAS PULLED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N29W AND WEAKENED. AN ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM 32N25W TO 23N27W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIES N OF 23N E OF 30W. OTHERWISE...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 13N KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE ONCE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENED BUT IS STILL PRODUCING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 35W-50W. GFS FORECASTS THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE CENTRAL/WRN ATLC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE STAYING RATHER ZONAL IN THE E ATLC. $$ CANGIALOSI