000 AXNT20 KNHC 120005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD IS NOTED. THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODERATE TO STRONG SW-WLY WINDS ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON THIS ONCE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N30W 8N50W 11N58W 10N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 36W-46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N87W 23N93W 22N98W. 15-20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 91W-95W. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NRN EXTENT OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNDAY EVENING. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...WRN HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 18N82W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND W OF 72W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 12N. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 12N. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 28N52W 22N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND 120 NM E OF FRONT. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO 27N24W 22N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-35N BETWEEN 17W-27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 60W-70W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N E OF 60W. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ORIGINATES NEAR VENEZUELA AND RACES ENE TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. THE JET IS HEAVILY SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE ITCZ CONVECTION. $$ FORMOSA