000 AXNT20 KNHC 110527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SW-WLY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THIS ONCE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IS BARELY RECOGNIZABLE WITH ONLY A HINT OF SOME LOW CLOUD TURNING ABOUT THE AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N30W 7N50W 9N59W. THE ITCZ AXIS APPEARS UNUSUALLY QUIET WITH NO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE GULF AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E...NOW CENTERED ABOVE THE BAHAMAS AND THE ERN SEABOARD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG IN THE NW GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS STILL INLAND OVER SE TEXAS BUT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM A FEW TROPICAL LOWS IN THE EPAC...ONE OF WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ROSA...ACROSS S AND CNTRL MEXICO AND THE GULF MAINLY S OF 27N. THIS MOISTURE IS NOT A BIG WEATHER FACTOR AS IT IS MAINLY UPPER LEVEL WITH THE 88-D'S ONLY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF SW FLORIDA. THE SFC HIGH HAS ALSO SHIFTED E OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT FROM THE E/SE ACROSS THE E AND MID GULF. THIS FLOW TURNS S-SWLY IN THE WRN GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THRU THE DAY TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY BECOMING DIFFUSE AND STATIONARY ON SUN. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE WEAK/MODERATE FRONT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WELL BELOW GALE CRITERIA. CARIBBEAN... THE CARIB REMAINS QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF DRY/ STABLE SINKING AIR ALOFT IN PLACE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PRODUCING THIS STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR 18N84W AND ANOTHER STRONG UPPER HIGH E OF THE AREA. A WEAKNESS LIES ABOVE THE CNTRL CARIB INDUCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE N/NE. THE ONLY SFC FEATURE ON THE MAP IS A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS SIGNATURE AND WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AT 06Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM N AND W OF THE WEAK LOW. MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE IS IMPINGING ON THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL JET AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF THESE RIDGES IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 55W HAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ALONG 32N55W 23N65W THEN STATIONARY TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWING SINGS OF CUTTING OFF...AS SUGGESTED BY GFS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WEAKENING OF THE SFC FRONT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE NARROW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE PATTERN THEN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N30W. THIS UPPER FEATURE HAS A RELATED SFC LOW WHICH IS ANALYZED AT 1006 MB NEAR 29N31W. MOST OF THE WEATHER IS E OF THE SFC LOW...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 22W-26W...LINED ALONG A SFC TROUGH. E OF THIS LARGE LOW...LIES A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 16W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE MAIN FEATURE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WHICH ORIGINATES NEAR VENEZUELA AND RACES ENE ALONG 15N56W 16N32W THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST OF N AFRICA NEAR 21N17W. HIGHLY SHEARED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. UPPER CONFLUENCE W OF THE AXIS IS ENHANCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. $$ CANGIALOSI