000 AXNT20 KNHC 102345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SURINAME AND GUYANA. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N30W 8N50W 8N55W 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-140 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-37W AND 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SWLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF COVERING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLC AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL INVADE THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF ON SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EPAC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE FROM A HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH E CUBA TO JAMAICA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW SITUATED NEAR 10.5N80W AND A TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-82W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 17N82W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST OF THESE RIDGES IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 58W HAS AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ALONG 31N57W 23N65W...THEN EXTENDS SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 60W-68W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH GOES FROM 30N56W TO 25N59W. SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 26N-31N AND BEYOND. MID TO UPPER HIGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N52 EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N30W. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW...REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N32W. AN OLD PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE LOW GENERATING A BAND OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-32W BETWEEN 24W-27W. MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS N THROUGH THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND EXTENDS NEARLY FROM BARBADOS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS...INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE...FROM NORTHERN VENEZUELA ALL THE WAY EAST AND NE THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE/CANARY ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL JETSTREAM. $$ GR