000 AXNT20 KNHC 101130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 53W-59W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOW 20-40 KT SELY WINDS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE ERN PORTION. THESE WINDS ARE SHEARING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AND APPEAR TO HAVE DETACHED THE ONCE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING W INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N30W 8N42W 9N50W 6N57W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR. THIS SINKING AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A 1015 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W IS PRODUCING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR WITH DEBRIS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM RECENTLY DOWNGRADED T.D. ROSA SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WRN GULF AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC AND PULLING NWD TOWARDS THE SE STATES BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW GULF. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY UPPER LEVEL WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AS SHOWN BY DOPPLER RADAR FROM LOUISIANA. MOISTURE MAY THICKEN A LITTLE IN THE WRN/CNTRL GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST FEW IN THE REGION BUT IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS MAINLY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK FEATURES PRODUCING VERY LITTLE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS PART OF THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING WITH THE BOUNDARY MARKED ONLY BY A BROKEN LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM. THE OTHER WEAK FEATURE IS A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. WHILE THIS SFC LOW REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH NO CONVECTION OR EVEN THICK ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...IT HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGES...QSCAT AND SFC OBS WHICH DO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE WINDS AND A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM N AND W OF THE WEAK LOW. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS. ONE UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC WITH RIDGING STRETCHING EASTWARD TO 75W. THE OTHER IS LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH RIDGING STRETCHING WESTWARD TO 70W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN 70W-75W INDUCED BY A PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO THE N. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH DRY AIR/SINKING MOTION ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...SHORT WAVELENGTH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL U.S. HAS PUSHED EASTWARD NOW CENTERED ALONG 78W. E OF THIS RIDGE LIES A NARROW TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ENE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N62W 24N71W TO ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS E OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 20N51W WITH RIDGING COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-65W. SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT/TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...N OF 26N. THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS QUICKLY THINS OUT S OF 26N DUE TO THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. A PRONOUNCED TROUGH LIES E OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N34W SWD TO 20N32W THEN SHARPLY TO THE SW NEAR 15N47W. A RELATED SFC LOW IS ANALYZED AT 1007 MB NEAR 29N34W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 24N36W THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 20N45W 20N55W 23N58W. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE SFC LOW AND IN PARTICULAR WITHIN 120 NM OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 32N27W 23N31W. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL JET WHICH ORIGINATES NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS JET IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING ENERGY WHICH IS ENHANCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W/52W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL...IS BEING SPREAD TO THE NE BY THE STRONG SWLY WINDS. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 18W/19W OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. $$ CANGIALOSI