000 AXNT20 KNHC 100534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QSCAT PASS AT 2120 UTC. THIS WAVE IS ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE QSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 20 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THERE ARE LIKELY STRONGER WINDS IN THE CONVECTION HOWEVER MOST OF THESE ARE RAIN-FLAGGED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS DERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOWS 30-40 KT SLY AND SWLY WINDS SHEARING SOME OF THE CONVECTION AND STRETCHING HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE N/NE. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING W INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N30W 8N42W 6N55W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-46W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED RIDGING LIES ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY STABLE AIR LIES ABOVE THE GULF E OF 87W. THIS SINKING AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH A 1014 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W IS PRODUCING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE WRN GULF IS NOT QUITE AS CLEAR WITH DEBRIS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM RECENTLY DOWNGRADED T.D. ROSA SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WRN GULF AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC AND PULLING NWD TOWARDS THE SRN STATES BY A SHORTWAVE OFF THE TX COAST. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE IS MAINLY UPPER LEVEL WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AS SHOWN BY DOPPLER RADAR FROM SE TEXAS. MOISTURE MAY THICKEN A LITTLE IN THE WRN GULF FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL BE VERY STRONG BUT IT MAY INCREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EARLY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK BENIGN FEATURES. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM ERN CUBA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS THE COAST OF BELIZE. THIS PART OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH THE BOUNDARY ONLY MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION OR EVEN THICK CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGES AND QSCAT WINDS DO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE WINDS BUT THIS MAY BE BETTER REPRESENTED AS A PORTION OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY TWO UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS. ONE UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC WITH RIDGING STRETCHING EASTWARD TO 75W. THE OTHER IS LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH RIDGING STRETCHING TO 70W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN 70W-75W INDUCED BY A PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO THE N. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. A NARROW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 36N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 32N64W 24N70W TO ERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ...PATCHES OF COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES E OF THE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 21N52W WITH RIDGING COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 40W-65W. SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...N OF 26N. THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS QUICKLY THINS OUT S OF 26N IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT. A PRONOUNCED TROUGH LIES E OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N34W SWD TO 20N33W THEN SHARPLY TO THE SW NEAR 15N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG 32N31W 20N40W 24N60W. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE ALONG 32N27W 24N30W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF 26N. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HAS SET UP A TROPICAL JET WHICH ORIGINATES NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS JET IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING ENERGY WHICH IS ENHANCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W AND SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE. SEE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ SECTIONS FOR INFO. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 18W/19W OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. $$ CANGIALOSI