000 AXNT20 KNHC 092344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ...FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 46W-52W. THE WAVE IS S OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS SHEARING THE HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE TO THE NE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 8N43W 8N48W TO THE FRENCH GUIANA COAST NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE COAST FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO NE VENEZUELA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE SE U.S FROM AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ON THE EPAC SIDE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO MOVING EWD. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM T.S. ROSA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR/DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 28N86W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. INCLUDING THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING ENE TOWARDS THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM AN UPPER HIGH SITUATED ON THE EPAC DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH LOCATED JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE AIR IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND INSTEAD IS MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N78W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE ATLC OCEAN. FROM W TO E...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OFF THE MID ATLC EAST COAST AND DIPS SW INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT HAS USHERED VERY DRY/PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TO THE STATE OF FLORIDA ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N66W THEN CONTINUES SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM OCEAN ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. PATCHES ON MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN AROUND 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR BETWEEN THE TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGING EXTENDING NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 32N36W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 14N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG 32N31W 22N40W 21N56W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N28W TO 17N38W. A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM 26N-31N. MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 26N. STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 19W/20W OVER THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR